Tuesday, November 21, 2006
The Florida Marlins Know Pitching. Evaluating the Marlins Recent Trades
The Florida Marlins made two trades involving pitchers on Monday. On paper, you have to say that the Marlins got the better of both deals. Here's a quick evaluation.
Marlins send ADAM BOSTICK and JASON VARGAS to the Mets for MATT LINDSTROM and HENRY OWENS.
ADAM BOSTICK - 24 years old. Bostick has yet to pitch at the major league level. In 495 minor league innings his record is 9.8 K's and 4.6 BB's. An OK 2.1 K to BB ratio, but that's a high level of walks. The lowest ERA he has ever recorded for a full year was 3.52. Would not expect too much out of him at the Major League level, but he is a lefty.
JASON VARGAS - will be 24 years old this year. In 237 minor league innings, his record is 8.6 K's and 2.8 BB's. That's an excellent ratio of 3.1 to 1. However, in AAA last year he was awful, pitching to a 7.43 ERA in 69 innings. He has also pitched 116 major league innings and has likewise been awful, going 6.5 K's and 4.7 BB's, with a 5.27 ERA. Prior to '06, his minor league record was pretty good at 9.4 K's and 2.5 BB's, all at AA or less. What to make of him? He did have an injury last year, and he did pitch very well in the low minors. I'd say he can pitch on the big league level, but doubt he will ever be a star.
MATT LINDSTROM - will be 27 years old. Has never pitched above AA. His record is 436 innings/ 7.9 K's/ 3.9 BB's. A ratio of 2 to 1. Last year in AA Binghamton, Lindstrom's record was 40 innings/ 12.2 K's/ 3.2 BB's / 3.76 ERA, all in relief. That was the first year Lindstrom pitched entirely as a reliever. I'd say he can definitely pitch in the Majors as a reliever, with some success. His K rate is just too high to ignore, and his K to BB ratio was 3.8. That is the makings of a successful reliever.
HENRY OWENS - will be 28 this year. He pitched 4 innings for the Mets in '06, but other than that he has never pitched above AA. However, his record in the minors is pretty good, 248 innings/ 12.4 K's/ 3.9 BB's. That's a 3.2 K to BB ratio. Excellent. At AA Binghamton this year, Owens pitched brilliantly, 40 innings/ 16.7 K's/ 2.3 BB's/ 20 saves/ 1.58 ERA. That K rate is not a misprint. His K to BB ratio was off the charts at 7.3. He's old to be a prospect, but Owens can obviously pitch at the big league level, and probably with a lot of success. The Marlins may very well just plug him into the closer role this year, and I'd say there's a very good chance he can handle it.
EVALUATION
The Marlins gave up a mediocre prospect in Bostick, and a question mark starter in Vargas. In return they got back two older minor league relievers who can flat out throw some cheeze. Owens has all the makings of a big-time big league closer. Unless Vargas turns into a decent starter at the big league level, the Marlins got the better of this deal.
Marlins send CHRIS RESOP to the Angels for KEVIN GREGG
CHRIS RESOP - will be 24 years old. Resop's minor league record is, 152 innings/ 10.8 K's/ 2.5 BB's/ 39 saves. A great K to BB ratio of 4.3. In AAA Albuquerque in 06, he was 49 innings/ 7.9 K's/ 2.8 BB's/ 3.81 ERA. Not bad numbers in a tough AAA park and league. Resop has also pitched in the majors, going 38 innings/ 6.3 K's/ 6.3 BB's/ 5.70 ERA. Not a great record, but he showed improvement last year. He has talent, and will develop into a major league reliever, and possibly a closer, if given the chance.
KEVIN GREGG - will be 29 years old this year. Gregg is already an established major league reliever. His record to date is 255 innings/ 7.8 K's/ 3.0 BB's/ 4.31 ERA. A nice 2.6 K to BB ratio. So Gregg is already a decent reliever at the big league level. There is nothing in his minor league record to indicate he is ever going to be any better than he is.
EVALUATION
The Marlins gave up a relatively young reliever who has demonstrated great talent at the lower minor league levels, but has yet to show that talent at the big league level. In return they get back a proven major league reliever with a decent track record. Over time, Resop might develop into a better reliever than Gregg, but for now the Marlins come out ahead on this trade because they traded might be for a proven commodity.
OVERALL EVALUATION
The Florida Marlins dealt a mediocre minor league prospect (Bostick), and two minor leaguers who have demonstrated very good talent at the lower minor league levels, (Vargas and Resop), but have yet to show that talent at the major league level. In return, they got back a decent major league proven reliever,(Gregg), a minor league reliever who K'd over 17 batters per 9 innings (that's like little league, not AA) last year, (Owens), and a minor leaguer who also had a year that demonstrated he might be ready for the bigs (Lindstrom).
You never know how trades will work out, but from a statistical point of view, the Marlins got the better of these two trades.
Marlins send ADAM BOSTICK and JASON VARGAS to the Mets for MATT LINDSTROM and HENRY OWENS.
ADAM BOSTICK - 24 years old. Bostick has yet to pitch at the major league level. In 495 minor league innings his record is 9.8 K's and 4.6 BB's. An OK 2.1 K to BB ratio, but that's a high level of walks. The lowest ERA he has ever recorded for a full year was 3.52. Would not expect too much out of him at the Major League level, but he is a lefty.
JASON VARGAS - will be 24 years old this year. In 237 minor league innings, his record is 8.6 K's and 2.8 BB's. That's an excellent ratio of 3.1 to 1. However, in AAA last year he was awful, pitching to a 7.43 ERA in 69 innings. He has also pitched 116 major league innings and has likewise been awful, going 6.5 K's and 4.7 BB's, with a 5.27 ERA. Prior to '06, his minor league record was pretty good at 9.4 K's and 2.5 BB's, all at AA or less. What to make of him? He did have an injury last year, and he did pitch very well in the low minors. I'd say he can pitch on the big league level, but doubt he will ever be a star.
MATT LINDSTROM - will be 27 years old. Has never pitched above AA. His record is 436 innings/ 7.9 K's/ 3.9 BB's. A ratio of 2 to 1. Last year in AA Binghamton, Lindstrom's record was 40 innings/ 12.2 K's/ 3.2 BB's / 3.76 ERA, all in relief. That was the first year Lindstrom pitched entirely as a reliever. I'd say he can definitely pitch in the Majors as a reliever, with some success. His K rate is just too high to ignore, and his K to BB ratio was 3.8. That is the makings of a successful reliever.
HENRY OWENS - will be 28 this year. He pitched 4 innings for the Mets in '06, but other than that he has never pitched above AA. However, his record in the minors is pretty good, 248 innings/ 12.4 K's/ 3.9 BB's. That's a 3.2 K to BB ratio. Excellent. At AA Binghamton this year, Owens pitched brilliantly, 40 innings/ 16.7 K's/ 2.3 BB's/ 20 saves/ 1.58 ERA. That K rate is not a misprint. His K to BB ratio was off the charts at 7.3. He's old to be a prospect, but Owens can obviously pitch at the big league level, and probably with a lot of success. The Marlins may very well just plug him into the closer role this year, and I'd say there's a very good chance he can handle it.
EVALUATION
The Marlins gave up a mediocre prospect in Bostick, and a question mark starter in Vargas. In return they got back two older minor league relievers who can flat out throw some cheeze. Owens has all the makings of a big-time big league closer. Unless Vargas turns into a decent starter at the big league level, the Marlins got the better of this deal.
Marlins send CHRIS RESOP to the Angels for KEVIN GREGG
CHRIS RESOP - will be 24 years old. Resop's minor league record is, 152 innings/ 10.8 K's/ 2.5 BB's/ 39 saves. A great K to BB ratio of 4.3. In AAA Albuquerque in 06, he was 49 innings/ 7.9 K's/ 2.8 BB's/ 3.81 ERA. Not bad numbers in a tough AAA park and league. Resop has also pitched in the majors, going 38 innings/ 6.3 K's/ 6.3 BB's/ 5.70 ERA. Not a great record, but he showed improvement last year. He has talent, and will develop into a major league reliever, and possibly a closer, if given the chance.
KEVIN GREGG - will be 29 years old this year. Gregg is already an established major league reliever. His record to date is 255 innings/ 7.8 K's/ 3.0 BB's/ 4.31 ERA. A nice 2.6 K to BB ratio. So Gregg is already a decent reliever at the big league level. There is nothing in his minor league record to indicate he is ever going to be any better than he is.
EVALUATION
The Marlins gave up a relatively young reliever who has demonstrated great talent at the lower minor league levels, but has yet to show that talent at the big league level. In return they get back a proven major league reliever with a decent track record. Over time, Resop might develop into a better reliever than Gregg, but for now the Marlins come out ahead on this trade because they traded might be for a proven commodity.
OVERALL EVALUATION
The Florida Marlins dealt a mediocre minor league prospect (Bostick), and two minor leaguers who have demonstrated very good talent at the lower minor league levels, (Vargas and Resop), but have yet to show that talent at the major league level. In return, they got back a decent major league proven reliever,(Gregg), a minor league reliever who K'd over 17 batters per 9 innings (that's like little league, not AA) last year, (Owens), and a minor leaguer who also had a year that demonstrated he might be ready for the bigs (Lindstrom).
You never know how trades will work out, but from a statistical point of view, the Marlins got the better of these two trades.
