Tuesday, November 14, 2006
Ranking the Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2007
Rankings are based on the Stats, taking into consideration 7 categories. Age, Career Average Won-Lost record, Career ERA, Percentage of the League ERA (LERA), K and BB rates, and Career Won-Lost Records.
I'm leaving Clemens and Galvine off the list because Clemens may retire, and Glavine is either going to re-sign with the Mets or go to the Braves.
Any starting pitcher who failed to have a career ERA at or below the LERA will not be mentioned, as such pitchers rarely make wothwhile signings for teams.
1) BARRY ZITO - will be 29 this year, he has the lowest % of LERA of anybody on the list, except Maddux, at 79%. Average year is 15-9, with 3.55 ERA, 6.9 K's and 3.5 BB's. Career record stands at 102-63. Only knock on him is that he compiled his fine stats while playing in a great pitchers park in Oakland. He has the least amount of question marks about him of anybody on the list.
2) ANDY PETTITTE - 34 years old, pitched to 84% of the LERA in career. Typical year is 17-9, 3.81 ERA, 6.6 K's and 2.8 BB's. Career record stands at 186-104. Contemplating retiring, but he's not really old for a lefty pitcher. Has battled some injuries, but he's a solid pitcher.
3) JASON SCHMIDT - 33 years old, pitched to 91% of the LERA in career. Typical year is 13-9, 3.91 ERA, 8.0 K's and 3.5 BB's. Career record stands at 127-90. Most people would put him above Pettitte, but the stats clearly say otherwise. He's a risk because most of his favorable stats are the product of a couple of great years, a few years back. Other than those years, he's a slightly above average pitcher.
4) MARK MULDER - 29 years old, has pitched to 92% of LERA. Typical year is 17-9, 4.11 ERA, 5.7 K's and 2.8 BB's. Career record stands at 103-57. Quality pitcher who's a risk because of injury. Worth the risk if he's healthy and the price is right. He's not that old, and should be able to come back eventually.
5) GREG MADDUX - 40 years old, has pitched to 74% of LERA in career. TYpical year is 16-10, 3.07 ERA, 6.2 K's and 1.8 BB's. Career record stands at 333-203. Yes he's old, but he pitched OK for the Dodgers at the end of last year. At this stage of his career, he needs to be in the right spot to have success.
6) BRAD RADKE - 34 years old. 89% of LERA in career. Typical year is 13-12, 4.22 ERA, 5.4 K's and 1.6 BB's. Career record is 148-139. Another with injury problems. Only rates this high if healthy.
7) RANDY WOLF - 30 years old, pitched to 98% of LERA in career. Typical year is 12-10, 4.21 ERA, 7.4 K's and 3.4 BB's. Career record is 69-60. Another lefty with an injury problem, who is not that old. If you think he's healthy, and the price is right, he's worth the risk.
8) TOMO OHKA - 30 years old, pitched to 90% of LERA in career. Typical year is 9-11, with 4.04 ERA, 5.1 K's and 2.5 BB's. Career record is 48-58. Not much in the K department, but this guy has pitched fairly effectively at the major league level in his career, mostly for bad teams. He's worth a long look in a year when teams are struggling to find quality pitchers, and he probably won't cost that much.
9) VINCENT PADILLA - 29 years old, pitched to 94% of LERA in career. Typical year is 12-11, 4.06 ERA, 6.3 K's and 3.1 BB's. Career record is 66-61. Has pitched somewhat effectivley in two lousy pitchers parks in Philly and Texas. Worth a risk at the right price.
10) WOODY WILLIAMS - 40 years old, pitched to 95 % of LERA in career. Typical year is 12-9, 4.09 ERA, 6.1 K's and 2.9 BB's. Career Record is 124 -101. Would rank higher on the list, but he's over 40. Would only sign him at the right price. Been pitching lately in a great pitchers park.
One Pitcher Worth a Risk
TED LILLY - has pitched to just 100% of LERA in career, but he has a high K rate at 7.7, is 59-58, he's a lefty and still only 30 years old.
Six Pitchers to Forget About
STEVE TRACSHEL - well below two K to BB rate. Career record stands at 134-143. 36 years old. He was never really any good and he's not getting any better.
JOHN THOMPSON - career record stands at 62-84.
JEFF SUPPAN - pitched great in the post season, but his career K to BB rate is 1.7, and his career ERA is 4.60.
AARON SELE - another low K to BB guy. Actually has a fine career W/L record at 145-110. He just has not pitched well enough lately to warrant serious consideration.
ORLANDO HERNANDEZ - El Duque has been a fine major league pitcher and a tremendous post season pitcher, but he's too injury prone at this stage of his career. Listed age is 37, but wouldn't it be great if we could all knock 5-10 years off our real age?
MIGUEL BATISTA - K to BB rate is an abysmal 1.5. Career record stands at 68-79, and he's over 35 years of age.
I'm leaving Clemens and Galvine off the list because Clemens may retire, and Glavine is either going to re-sign with the Mets or go to the Braves.
Any starting pitcher who failed to have a career ERA at or below the LERA will not be mentioned, as such pitchers rarely make wothwhile signings for teams.
1) BARRY ZITO - will be 29 this year, he has the lowest % of LERA of anybody on the list, except Maddux, at 79%. Average year is 15-9, with 3.55 ERA, 6.9 K's and 3.5 BB's. Career record stands at 102-63. Only knock on him is that he compiled his fine stats while playing in a great pitchers park in Oakland. He has the least amount of question marks about him of anybody on the list.
2) ANDY PETTITTE - 34 years old, pitched to 84% of the LERA in career. Typical year is 17-9, 3.81 ERA, 6.6 K's and 2.8 BB's. Career record stands at 186-104. Contemplating retiring, but he's not really old for a lefty pitcher. Has battled some injuries, but he's a solid pitcher.
3) JASON SCHMIDT - 33 years old, pitched to 91% of the LERA in career. Typical year is 13-9, 3.91 ERA, 8.0 K's and 3.5 BB's. Career record stands at 127-90. Most people would put him above Pettitte, but the stats clearly say otherwise. He's a risk because most of his favorable stats are the product of a couple of great years, a few years back. Other than those years, he's a slightly above average pitcher.
4) MARK MULDER - 29 years old, has pitched to 92% of LERA. Typical year is 17-9, 4.11 ERA, 5.7 K's and 2.8 BB's. Career record stands at 103-57. Quality pitcher who's a risk because of injury. Worth the risk if he's healthy and the price is right. He's not that old, and should be able to come back eventually.
5) GREG MADDUX - 40 years old, has pitched to 74% of LERA in career. TYpical year is 16-10, 3.07 ERA, 6.2 K's and 1.8 BB's. Career record stands at 333-203. Yes he's old, but he pitched OK for the Dodgers at the end of last year. At this stage of his career, he needs to be in the right spot to have success.
6) BRAD RADKE - 34 years old. 89% of LERA in career. Typical year is 13-12, 4.22 ERA, 5.4 K's and 1.6 BB's. Career record is 148-139. Another with injury problems. Only rates this high if healthy.
7) RANDY WOLF - 30 years old, pitched to 98% of LERA in career. Typical year is 12-10, 4.21 ERA, 7.4 K's and 3.4 BB's. Career record is 69-60. Another lefty with an injury problem, who is not that old. If you think he's healthy, and the price is right, he's worth the risk.
8) TOMO OHKA - 30 years old, pitched to 90% of LERA in career. Typical year is 9-11, with 4.04 ERA, 5.1 K's and 2.5 BB's. Career record is 48-58. Not much in the K department, but this guy has pitched fairly effectively at the major league level in his career, mostly for bad teams. He's worth a long look in a year when teams are struggling to find quality pitchers, and he probably won't cost that much.
9) VINCENT PADILLA - 29 years old, pitched to 94% of LERA in career. Typical year is 12-11, 4.06 ERA, 6.3 K's and 3.1 BB's. Career record is 66-61. Has pitched somewhat effectivley in two lousy pitchers parks in Philly and Texas. Worth a risk at the right price.
10) WOODY WILLIAMS - 40 years old, pitched to 95 % of LERA in career. Typical year is 12-9, 4.09 ERA, 6.1 K's and 2.9 BB's. Career Record is 124 -101. Would rank higher on the list, but he's over 40. Would only sign him at the right price. Been pitching lately in a great pitchers park.
One Pitcher Worth a Risk
TED LILLY - has pitched to just 100% of LERA in career, but he has a high K rate at 7.7, is 59-58, he's a lefty and still only 30 years old.
Six Pitchers to Forget About
STEVE TRACSHEL - well below two K to BB rate. Career record stands at 134-143. 36 years old. He was never really any good and he's not getting any better.
JOHN THOMPSON - career record stands at 62-84.
JEFF SUPPAN - pitched great in the post season, but his career K to BB rate is 1.7, and his career ERA is 4.60.
AARON SELE - another low K to BB guy. Actually has a fine career W/L record at 145-110. He just has not pitched well enough lately to warrant serious consideration.
ORLANDO HERNANDEZ - El Duque has been a fine major league pitcher and a tremendous post season pitcher, but he's too injury prone at this stage of his career. Listed age is 37, but wouldn't it be great if we could all knock 5-10 years off our real age?
MIGUEL BATISTA - K to BB rate is an abysmal 1.5. Career record stands at 68-79, and he's over 35 years of age.
