Saturday, November 18, 2006
Ranking the Free Agent Hitters for 2007
Rankings based on players ages, combined with their average offensive seasons, and their lifetime batting averages, on-base percentages and slugging percentages.
Say what you want about the free agent pitchers this year, but to me the hitters are an even worse collective bunch of players. Question marks abound with all of these players. Most of them will get contracts, and most will never live up to them.
OUTFIELDERS
1) ALFONSO SORIANO - 30 years old. Average season is 35 HR's, 94 RBI's, 105 Runs, with a .280 Avg, .325 OBP and .510 SLG. Walked 67 times last year, which was more than double his previous high. He's a low on-base player, which he compensates somewhat for with his speed. Be interesting to see what kind of a deal he gets. Personally, I think the 10 million he got last year is just about right. Loses a lot of appeal to fantasy players this year because he is no longer eligible at 2B. Nobody he has been associated with in the past seems real interested in him, Yankees, Rangers, Willie Randolph (Mets), except for the Nationals. Says something to me.
2) J. D. DREW - 29 years old. Average season is 27 HR's, 86 RBI's, 102 Runs, with a .286 Avg, .393 OBP and .512 SLG. Has only had one year with 500 at-bats. He's a better offensive player than Soriano, but just misses too much time with injuries to be ranked higher. Give him the same number of AB's as Soriano each year, and his seasonal numbers would be much better. They are not far behind now, even though he has missed substantial amounts of playing time. He's a fine statistical player, when he actually plays. The missed time leaves lots of questions.
3) CARLOS LEE - 30 years old. Average season is 30 HR's, 105 RBI's, 97 Runs, with a .286 Avg, .340 OBP and .495 SLG. He's about even with Soriano as an offensive player, except for the speed.
4) MOISES ALOU - 40 years old. Average Season is 28 HR's, 108 RBI's, 93 Runs, with a .301 Avg, .368 OBP and .516 SLG. He's getting up there in age, but still producing good numbers.
5) CLIFF FLOYD - 33 years old. average season is 24 HR's, 89 RBI's, 86 Runs, with a .279 avg, .359 OBP and .488 SLG. Would rank higher but for all his injury problems. Seems to get hurt every year.
6) DARREN ERSTAD - 32 years old. Average season is 14 HR's, 77 RBI's, 100 Runs, with a .286 Avg, .341 OBP and .416 SLG. Might be able to put up better numbers playing in a better hitters park and a better hitting division.
7) PRESTON WILSON - 32 years old. Average Season is 28 HR's, 99 RBI's, 85 Runs, with a .264 Avg, .330 OBP and .471 SLG. He's a low on-base player, with some pop. Another guy unlikely to get a long term deal anywhere.
8) JUAN PIERRE - 29 years old. Average season is 2 HR's, 46 RBI's, 98 Runs, with a .303 Avg, .350 OBP and .377 SLG. Speed is his game, and he still has it, having stolen 58 bases last year.
9) KENNY LOFTON - 39 years old. Average season is 10 HR's, 61 RBI'd, 119 Runs, with a .299 Avg, .372 OBP and .423 SLG. Better offensive player than Pierre, but much older. He still has speed too, as he stole 32 bases last year for the Dodgers. Might squeeze another year or two out of him, if you're lucky.
10) DAVE ROBERTS - 34 years old. Average season is 5 HR's, 44 RBI's, 87 Runs, with a .270 Avg, .344 OBP and .371 SLG. Another guy who still has his speed, with 49 SB's last year. Has never had 500 AB's in a year.
11) LUIS GONZALEZ - 39 years old. Average season is 23 HR's, 93 RBI's, 92 Runs, with a .284 Avg, .368 OBP, and .484 SLG. His production is down from what he used to do, but he wasn't awful last year.
Four OF's Who are Strictly Part-Timers:
FRANK CATALANATTO - has never had 500 AB's in any year, and in most years is far short of that. Have seen him play enough to say that he'd disappoint anyone who thinks he can be a full time player. He's not a bad player, but he's a part-timer.
DAVID DELLUCCI - very similar player to Catalanatto, he too has never gotten 500 AB's in any given year. Both these guys make great platoon players.
SHANNON STEWART - has pretty good career numbers, but his slugging percentage has fallen off the table the last couple of years. Have to be leary of him.
TROT NIXON - been a decent player, and used to kill righties, but his SLG was just .394 last year, and he has not played full-time in years.
INFIELDERS
1) AUBREY HUFF - 29 years old. Average season is 26 HR's, 91 RBI's, 81 Runs, with a .285 Avg, .342 OBP and .477 SLG. Ranks this high because he's still only 29. He has a better chance of maintaining his decent level of production than do the older free agents. Obviously is never going to be the star player some predicted he would be. If the Yankees trade A-Rod, he would make an interesting 3B candidate in the Bronx.
2) RAY DURHAM - 34 years old. Average season is 17 HR's, 72 RBI's, 107 Runs, with a .281 Avg, .354 OBP and .443 SLG. Best 2B available this year. Still got good wheels and power. Would not give him a long-term contract.
3) JULIO LUGO - 31 years old. Average season is 12 HR's, 59 RBI's, 92 Runs, with a .277 Avg, .340 OBP and .402 SLG. Has some speed, he's an OK player, but nothing really to open the checkbook for.
4) RON BELLIARD - 31 years old. Average season is 12 HR's, 68 RBI's, 82 Runs, with a .272 Avg, .338 OBP and .411 SLG. Very similar offensive player to Lugo. Edge Lugo has on him is that he can play SS everyday.
Four Infielders to be Leary of:
ADAM KENNEDY - only 30, but he has little power and doesn't get on base that well. Getting out of Anahiem might help his stats some, but not much upside here.
TODD WALKER - not a bad offensive player, but can't seem to hold down a full-time job anywhere. Have to be leary.
MARK LORRETTA - he's over 35 now, never had any power. He's an OK offensive player, but at his age, you must be leary.
AARON BOONE - would only get consideration from me if I thought he could play SS for me everyday.
1B/DH's
1) NOMAR GARCIAPARRA - 33 years old. Average season is 29 HR's, 113 RBI's, 115 Runs, with a .318 Avg, .367 OBP and .540 SLG. Had a pretty good year for the Dodgers, but still battled injuries, which have plagued his career for years now. Unlikely to ever get back to what his production was earlier in his career. Far too many rumors about him to trust he'll ever be really productive again for any long period of time.
2) BARRY BONDS - 42 years old. Average season is 42 HR's, 109 RBI's, 122 Runs, with a .299 Avg, .443 OBP and .608 SLG. Can't really run anymore, so he needs to go to the AL and be a DH. He's a risk because his numbers could flatline at any time given his age and problems, but he produced good last year in the second half.
3) CRAIG WILSON - 29 years old. Average seaosn is 24 HR's, 70 RBI's and 71 Runs, with a .265 Avg, .354 OBP, and a .480 SLG. He's not a bad offensive player, especially against lefties. If nobody makes a run at him, look for the sharpies like the Twins or the A's to sign him relatively cheap.
Four 1B/DH's to be Leary of:
KEVIN MILLAR - he was better in '06 than '05, but he's over 35 and has little speed. Orioles were obviously dissappointed with him.
SHEA HILLENBRAND - low OBP player with absolutley no speed. Seems to think he's a lot better than he is. I'd only take him at a bargain basement price.
RYAN KLESO - SLG has been down every year since '02. If I thought he was healthy I'd give him a shot at the right price. He's been a much better offensive player than either Millar or Hillenbrand.
PHIL NEVIN - too many injuries.
CATCHERS
1) BENGIE MOLINA - 32 years old. Average season is 16 HR's, 81 RBI's and 57 Runs, with a .275 Avg, .310 OBP, and a .407 SLG. Only ranked first because you can be reasonably sure he could hold down the job for a few years.
2) MIKE PIAZZA - 38 years old. Average season is 37 HR's, 114 RBI's, 90 Runs, with a .309 Avg, .379 OBP, and a .551 SLG. Actually SLG .501 last year in SD, which was the first time he was over .500 in 5 years. Great offensive player nearing the end.
3) MIKE LEIBERTHAL - 34 years old. Average season is 21 HR's, 84 RBI's, 73 Runs, with a .275 Avg, .338 OBP, and a .450 SLG. Injuries are the problem with him. If you sign him, better have a backup plan. Decent offensive player if healthy.
One Catcher to Avoid:
ROD BARAJAS - lifetime OBP of .282, with just a .240 batting average. And he played in one of the best hitters parks in baseball!
Say what you want about the free agent pitchers this year, but to me the hitters are an even worse collective bunch of players. Question marks abound with all of these players. Most of them will get contracts, and most will never live up to them.
OUTFIELDERS
1) ALFONSO SORIANO - 30 years old. Average season is 35 HR's, 94 RBI's, 105 Runs, with a .280 Avg, .325 OBP and .510 SLG. Walked 67 times last year, which was more than double his previous high. He's a low on-base player, which he compensates somewhat for with his speed. Be interesting to see what kind of a deal he gets. Personally, I think the 10 million he got last year is just about right. Loses a lot of appeal to fantasy players this year because he is no longer eligible at 2B. Nobody he has been associated with in the past seems real interested in him, Yankees, Rangers, Willie Randolph (Mets), except for the Nationals. Says something to me.
2) J. D. DREW - 29 years old. Average season is 27 HR's, 86 RBI's, 102 Runs, with a .286 Avg, .393 OBP and .512 SLG. Has only had one year with 500 at-bats. He's a better offensive player than Soriano, but just misses too much time with injuries to be ranked higher. Give him the same number of AB's as Soriano each year, and his seasonal numbers would be much better. They are not far behind now, even though he has missed substantial amounts of playing time. He's a fine statistical player, when he actually plays. The missed time leaves lots of questions.
3) CARLOS LEE - 30 years old. Average season is 30 HR's, 105 RBI's, 97 Runs, with a .286 Avg, .340 OBP and .495 SLG. He's about even with Soriano as an offensive player, except for the speed.
4) MOISES ALOU - 40 years old. Average Season is 28 HR's, 108 RBI's, 93 Runs, with a .301 Avg, .368 OBP and .516 SLG. He's getting up there in age, but still producing good numbers.
5) CLIFF FLOYD - 33 years old. average season is 24 HR's, 89 RBI's, 86 Runs, with a .279 avg, .359 OBP and .488 SLG. Would rank higher but for all his injury problems. Seems to get hurt every year.
6) DARREN ERSTAD - 32 years old. Average season is 14 HR's, 77 RBI's, 100 Runs, with a .286 Avg, .341 OBP and .416 SLG. Might be able to put up better numbers playing in a better hitters park and a better hitting division.
7) PRESTON WILSON - 32 years old. Average Season is 28 HR's, 99 RBI's, 85 Runs, with a .264 Avg, .330 OBP and .471 SLG. He's a low on-base player, with some pop. Another guy unlikely to get a long term deal anywhere.
8) JUAN PIERRE - 29 years old. Average season is 2 HR's, 46 RBI's, 98 Runs, with a .303 Avg, .350 OBP and .377 SLG. Speed is his game, and he still has it, having stolen 58 bases last year.
9) KENNY LOFTON - 39 years old. Average season is 10 HR's, 61 RBI'd, 119 Runs, with a .299 Avg, .372 OBP and .423 SLG. Better offensive player than Pierre, but much older. He still has speed too, as he stole 32 bases last year for the Dodgers. Might squeeze another year or two out of him, if you're lucky.
10) DAVE ROBERTS - 34 years old. Average season is 5 HR's, 44 RBI's, 87 Runs, with a .270 Avg, .344 OBP and .371 SLG. Another guy who still has his speed, with 49 SB's last year. Has never had 500 AB's in a year.
11) LUIS GONZALEZ - 39 years old. Average season is 23 HR's, 93 RBI's, 92 Runs, with a .284 Avg, .368 OBP, and .484 SLG. His production is down from what he used to do, but he wasn't awful last year.
Four OF's Who are Strictly Part-Timers:
FRANK CATALANATTO - has never had 500 AB's in any year, and in most years is far short of that. Have seen him play enough to say that he'd disappoint anyone who thinks he can be a full time player. He's not a bad player, but he's a part-timer.
DAVID DELLUCCI - very similar player to Catalanatto, he too has never gotten 500 AB's in any given year. Both these guys make great platoon players.
SHANNON STEWART - has pretty good career numbers, but his slugging percentage has fallen off the table the last couple of years. Have to be leary of him.
TROT NIXON - been a decent player, and used to kill righties, but his SLG was just .394 last year, and he has not played full-time in years.
INFIELDERS
1) AUBREY HUFF - 29 years old. Average season is 26 HR's, 91 RBI's, 81 Runs, with a .285 Avg, .342 OBP and .477 SLG. Ranks this high because he's still only 29. He has a better chance of maintaining his decent level of production than do the older free agents. Obviously is never going to be the star player some predicted he would be. If the Yankees trade A-Rod, he would make an interesting 3B candidate in the Bronx.
2) RAY DURHAM - 34 years old. Average season is 17 HR's, 72 RBI's, 107 Runs, with a .281 Avg, .354 OBP and .443 SLG. Best 2B available this year. Still got good wheels and power. Would not give him a long-term contract.
3) JULIO LUGO - 31 years old. Average season is 12 HR's, 59 RBI's, 92 Runs, with a .277 Avg, .340 OBP and .402 SLG. Has some speed, he's an OK player, but nothing really to open the checkbook for.
4) RON BELLIARD - 31 years old. Average season is 12 HR's, 68 RBI's, 82 Runs, with a .272 Avg, .338 OBP and .411 SLG. Very similar offensive player to Lugo. Edge Lugo has on him is that he can play SS everyday.
Four Infielders to be Leary of:
ADAM KENNEDY - only 30, but he has little power and doesn't get on base that well. Getting out of Anahiem might help his stats some, but not much upside here.
TODD WALKER - not a bad offensive player, but can't seem to hold down a full-time job anywhere. Have to be leary.
MARK LORRETTA - he's over 35 now, never had any power. He's an OK offensive player, but at his age, you must be leary.
AARON BOONE - would only get consideration from me if I thought he could play SS for me everyday.
1B/DH's
1) NOMAR GARCIAPARRA - 33 years old. Average season is 29 HR's, 113 RBI's, 115 Runs, with a .318 Avg, .367 OBP and .540 SLG. Had a pretty good year for the Dodgers, but still battled injuries, which have plagued his career for years now. Unlikely to ever get back to what his production was earlier in his career. Far too many rumors about him to trust he'll ever be really productive again for any long period of time.
2) BARRY BONDS - 42 years old. Average season is 42 HR's, 109 RBI's, 122 Runs, with a .299 Avg, .443 OBP and .608 SLG. Can't really run anymore, so he needs to go to the AL and be a DH. He's a risk because his numbers could flatline at any time given his age and problems, but he produced good last year in the second half.
3) CRAIG WILSON - 29 years old. Average seaosn is 24 HR's, 70 RBI's and 71 Runs, with a .265 Avg, .354 OBP, and a .480 SLG. He's not a bad offensive player, especially against lefties. If nobody makes a run at him, look for the sharpies like the Twins or the A's to sign him relatively cheap.
Four 1B/DH's to be Leary of:
KEVIN MILLAR - he was better in '06 than '05, but he's over 35 and has little speed. Orioles were obviously dissappointed with him.
SHEA HILLENBRAND - low OBP player with absolutley no speed. Seems to think he's a lot better than he is. I'd only take him at a bargain basement price.
RYAN KLESO - SLG has been down every year since '02. If I thought he was healthy I'd give him a shot at the right price. He's been a much better offensive player than either Millar or Hillenbrand.
PHIL NEVIN - too many injuries.
CATCHERS
1) BENGIE MOLINA - 32 years old. Average season is 16 HR's, 81 RBI's and 57 Runs, with a .275 Avg, .310 OBP, and a .407 SLG. Only ranked first because you can be reasonably sure he could hold down the job for a few years.
2) MIKE PIAZZA - 38 years old. Average season is 37 HR's, 114 RBI's, 90 Runs, with a .309 Avg, .379 OBP, and a .551 SLG. Actually SLG .501 last year in SD, which was the first time he was over .500 in 5 years. Great offensive player nearing the end.
3) MIKE LEIBERTHAL - 34 years old. Average season is 21 HR's, 84 RBI's, 73 Runs, with a .275 Avg, .338 OBP, and a .450 SLG. Injuries are the problem with him. If you sign him, better have a backup plan. Decent offensive player if healthy.
One Catcher to Avoid:
ROD BARAJAS - lifetime OBP of .282, with just a .240 batting average. And he played in one of the best hitters parks in baseball!
